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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Regionals Cardpoint Slovenia
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.9% | 10 | 2-5-3 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 42.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.3% | -9.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |